Passenger demand models are used to understand the movement of people across the multimodal transportation systems, which usually includes a combination of the modes ranging between car, bus, train, ferry, etc., and often include other access modes such as walking, taxis, etc. Traditional models are often complex and require substantial amount of data for their development, validation, and calibration. Consequently, this complexity contributes to increased project costs and extended timelines.
This study presents a simplified approach towards modeling passenger flows across a regional transportation network, focused on ferry transport. The model considers travel times, intermodal transfer times, boarding and alighting times, and the corresponding fares associated with the movement of passengers. These costs and times are categorized by passenger type and are represented as a link- or node-based generalized cost. The generalized cost function build-up also accounts for bottlenecks, inefficiencies, congestion, boarding issues, and delays, etc.
The model has been developed in collaboration with BC Ferries to understand demand on the ferry network and to test shifts in demand with potential new ferry routes. Future applications include analyzing demographic shifts, modeling future capacity needs, and assessing the impact of mode shift policies, providing a robust framework for strategic transportation planning.
