The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) remains in its early stages and the electric vehicle market share has become significant only recently. As a result, assessments of vehicle energy usage-influenced by everything from economic activity to fleet composition to charging behaviour-have relied on assumptions that are undergirded by limited empirical evidence. However, these assessments are crucial for electricity system operators, investors, and policy makers as they make long-term investments in electricity system supply. Here, we develop an analytical framework that integrates publicly available data and makes few assumptions to generate hourly load profiles of electric vehicle charging loads across the power system. The model is developed for the Canadian province of Alberta but employs economic and transportation data that are compiled routinely by other jurisdictions, making it broadly applicable to other locations. Results show that electric vehicles (EVs) will represent 16% of the current Alberta electricity consumption on an annual basis, with peaks that reach as high as 2.5 times the current demand peaks. With the growth in electric vehicles accelerating, the generalizable framework proposed here can be used by analysts in other jurisdictions to investigate the impact of light duty electrification on the electricity system, including to prioritize investments.
