This panel will explore the definition of productive supply chains, how this has changed over time, and what challenges may influence productive goods mobility in the future. What new opportunities may be available with technology? What new enabling policies, regulations and collaborations will we need to maximise our supply chain productivity?
Panelists will include representatives from the Railway Association of Canada, Export Development Canada, the Association of Canadian Port Authorities, Trucking HR Canada and the Freight Management Association of Canada.
Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada where he provides insights and general direction for economic products, which include reports and economic indicators about Canada, its regions, and sectors. He provides professional testimony before parliamentary... Read More →
Economist, Economic and Political Intelligence Center (EPIC) EXPORT DEVELOPMENT CANADA
Nadeem is an economist with expertise in macroeconomics, country risk assessment, and trade and competitiveness issues in emerging markets. Currently serving as an Economist at Export Development Canada (EDC), he focuses on economic matters pertaining to South and Southeast Asia... Read More →
Angela provides top-level stewardship of talent management best practices for the trucking and logistics sector in her role as CEO. Under Angela’s leadership, THRC has become a national centre of excellence where stakeholders in commercial transportation, public policy, training... Read More →
Vice President, Government and Industry Affairs, Association of Canadian Port Authorities
ACPA’s Debbie Murray, will draw over 2 decades of international policy, regulatory and public affairs experience in the areas of supply chains, innovation, market access and governance. Since joining ACPA in 2017, Debbie has galvanized the presence of CPAs with government and... Read More →
President, Freight Management Association of Canada
John Corey is the President of the Freight Management Association of Canada (FMA). A professional accountant by training, John spent 28 years at the Canadian Transportation Agency, working in both the Air and Rail branches of the Agency where he played a major role in dispute resolution... Read More →
Monday May 26, 2025 8:15am - 10:00am EDT Desmarais 116055 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5
Canada is known for its large land mass and concentration of population along the southern border, but with smaller communities across the country. Air connectivity allows for the movement of people and goods, supporting tourism and trade from larger centres. For smaller communities, air connectivity is vital and can often be the only form of transportation to other parts of the country. The recovery of the sector post-COVID 19 has changed the aviation landscape in Canada. Many communities have faced changes in services as the airlines adjusted their networks through the recovery period. Given the importance of air connectivity across the country, it is prudent to understand the different ways of measuring air connectivity. There are basic metrics such as number of direct destinations, or total number of seats, but these metrics do not take into account other factors that are important to connectivity, such as the size of the destination or economic importance. We propose a measure for connectivity that accounts for not only the size destination (and number of onward connections), but also accounting for one stop connections. This allows for connectivity to be measured by accounting for the hub and spoke model common in aviation.
Transportation is one of seven priority areas under the Accessible Canada Act (ACA) which sets out to realize a barrier-free Canada by 2040. The Accessible Transportation for Persons with Disabilities Regulations (ATPDR) were established to advance this goal and protect the right to barrier-free travel. Most provisions set out in the ATPDR came into force in 2020, while others were phased in until 2022 due to disruptions caused by COVID-19. Five years later, gaps in the consistency and quality of accessible transportation services remain.
A fundamental challenge lies in the disconnect between transportation service providers and other stakeholders within the aviation system. Effective collaboration between various entities is required to deliver a seamless, barrier-free experience for everyone.
This paper reflects on the past 5 years of the ATPDR with a focus on air travel, exploring accomplishments, challenges, and opportunities. It argues that compliance does not necessarily lead to accessible outcomes. As we navigate towards 2040, how might we shift the focus from a compliance-based approach to a framework that prioritizes dignity, autonomy, and empowerment? Over the next five years, what might be done to affect change in the industry and elevate accessibility to the same levels of safety and security?
Sonya is an Analyst at InterVISTAS Consulting, based in Vancouver, British Columbia Canada. She has supported a range of projects relating to economic analysis, policy, accessibility, and customer experience in the transportation industry. She holds a Bachelor of International Economics... Read More →
Good transit travel time estimates are important for transit planning and operations. Most existing literature focuses on predefined statistical distributions, analysis levels, or specific elements of transit travel times, but less on how various elements interact with each other and cause variations in the overall travel times. This study aims to address these research gaps by decomposing observed transit travel times, identifying how much variation can be attributed to each element and their interaction effects using sensitivity analyses, and demonstrating potential ways to improve bus schedules.
The analyses show that red-light waiting times are heavily affected by trip departure times and their interaction effects, where a few minutes of change can greatly affect the red times and overall travel times due to the varying cycle lengths in fixed signal timing plans. Therefore, historical travel time observations are conditional based on signal synchronizations given their departure times and planners must plan for the different signal synchronization patterns when adjusting bus schedules. To help plan for red time variations, we demonstrate some simple calculations the planners can perform to improve travel time estimations in a newly developed schedule by incorporating signal timings compared to the current practice of applying historical observations.
Full Professor, Polytechnique Montréal and CIRRELT
Martin Trépanier is a civil engineer and professor at the department of mathematics and industrial engineering of École Polytechnique de Montréal, an engineering school affiliated to the Université de Montréal. He is the titular of the Chair in the transformation of transportation... Read More →
Telecommuting has transformed the way two-worker households approach long-term decisions regarding residential location, workplace, and work modalities. This study explores the interconnections among these choices using data from the 2018 Okanagan Travel Survey conducted in British Columbia, Canada. This study employs random utility maximization-based discrete choice modelling approaches, specifically Cross-Nested Logit (CNL) models. The results show that households are more likely to adjust their work modalities, such as telecommuting, rather than altering their residential or workplace locations. Key factors shaping these choices include vehicle ownership, mobility challenges, age, and type of employment. Households with fewer vehicles exhibit a higher tendency to telecommute, while preferences favour residential areas with strong neighbourhood characteristics and workplaces near commercial centres or central business districts. Moreover, reducing commuting distances emerges as an essential aspect in balancing commuting burdens for two-worker households. These insights contribute to a nuanced understanding of the interconnected nature of household decisions and provide valuable input for promoting sustainable urban planning. The developed model will be integrated into the Simulator for Transportation, Energy, and Land Use for Regional Systems (STELARS), currently under development at The University of British Columbia.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Over the last two decades, a correlation has emerged between the Government of Canada's policies on immigration, tourism, and trade and Canada's bilateral air transport agreements. This paper will demonstrate how government policy actions on immigration, tourism, and trade can both support and hinder the development of air traffic by conducting a historical review of passenger traffic in relation to key policy changes, highlighting their influence on travel patterns in subsequent years.
This paper will use a statistical analysis of passenger traffic data and a qualitative analysis of government policy changes. The analyses will outline how shifts in government policy are linked to accelerations and decelerations in traffic growth using market case studies. Transitioning to the current context, the paper will explain how a new era of policy restrictiveness in areas such as immigration and trade could change bilateral passenger traffic flows between Canada and foreign markets. Finally, the paper will look to underscore the importance of governments' responsible use of foreign policy and air transport agreements to promote a stable expansion of air services from Canada to the rest of the world.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to initiate major changes in transportation systems, particularly in cities where multiple users share the transportation infrastructure. AVs can encounter scenarios where selecting a course of action gives rise to an ethical dilemma, such as determining which road user should bear a higher level of risk. This paper explores the application of the trolley problem in autonomous vehicle decision-making through a literature review. We first describe the trolley problem and how it can be used as a tool to solve ethical dilemmas revolving around AVs. Next, we introduce several ethical frameworks as solutions to trolley cases and discuss how these frameworks integrate within regulatory and cultural contexts. We conclude with a discussion on the ethical values involved in various dilemmas related to the deployment and operation of AVs.
Autonomous Transit Services (ATS) offer transformative solutions to urban mobility challenges by enabling precise operations with reliably scheduled arrival/departure times, dynamic route optimization avoiding congestion, advanced collision avoidance systems and continuous 24/7 operations without driver-related risks fostering a sustainable transportation system. Despite these benefits, research on individuals' perceptions of ATS remains limited due to minimal public exposure, high costs of pilot projects, and the interdisciplinary complexity required for comprehensive studies. To explore futuristic travel choices particularly emerging modes like ATS, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted. Additionally, revealed preference (RP) data, reflecting individuals' current mode choices were also collected, as existing choices significantly influence preferences for futuristic modes. Integrating RP data with SP analysis enables the development of robust models, improving the predictive accuracy of future travel behaviour. The study investigates perceptions of ATS along the Okanagan Rail Trail, a multi-modal pathway connecting major regional hubs. Using random sampling method, 1,500 responses were gathered from Kelowna and Lake Country residents. A mixed logit model examined the influence of socio-demographics, mobility tools, land-use patterns and individual attitudes on mode choice. The findings aim to provide actionable insights for urban-planners and policymakers to promote ATS adoption and advance sustainable urban mobility.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Rural areas and smaller cities often face unique challenges related to transportation and environmental considerations. In this context, the present study aims to understand mode choice behaviour of smaller cities in Canada which remain underrepresented in the literature. The data comes from the 2018 and 2024 Okanagan Travel Surveys (OTS) conducted in the Central Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada. The study develops a multinomial logit model to test the influence of sociodemographic, mobility tool ownership, built environment and neighborhood attributes on mode choice outcomes. Furthermore, a comparative analysis between the two datasets provides a unique opportunity to assess how mode choice patterns have evolved over time. The findings of the study highlights similarities and dissimilarities in mode choice between the time points, and confirm that such outcomes are sensitive to sociodemographic, vehicle and bike ownership levels, and neighborhood characteristics. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate how changes in vehicle and bike ownership, land use mix, and active transportation infrastructure influences the overall mode share. Overall, the findings of the study assist transportation professionals in developing robust policies for effective sustainable transportation planning.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Monday May 26, 2025 10:50am - 11:10am EDT Desmarais 113055 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5
Ecotourism is a global growth industry and Canada is well-positioned to attract more tourists for these types of activities. However, remote locations are under-served with respect to access and inherently vulnerable. This presents significant difficulties for tourists who want to see Canada's wildlife in their natural habitats. In addition, the use of transport to get close to wildlife for viewing opportunities can be stressful for the animals and may damage terrain. This article explores the use of passenger airships for ecotourism. Modern designs with electric propulsion make airships ideal for unintrusive ecotourism operations.
"Age-friendly Communities" is an initiative led by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) to support healthy aging in communities through the provision of a built environment (including active transportation) and programming that helps foster the inclusion of older adults in society. Communities can have age-friendly infrastructure development goals but may lack metrics to establish benchmarks and monitor progress. There are audit guides to assist with this evaluation, but the utility and uptake of these guides in engineering practice is unclear. This research piloted multiple guides, including some PHAC-recommended, on 62 selected road segments in Fredericton, NB. While the audit tools permitted a consistent method of compiling information, there were limitations, including: extensive data collection requirements (e.g. one had 165 built environment measures per segment), overly subjective attributes to measure, inconsistent scoring schemes, lack of a total score of "age-friendliness", lack of weighting on the importance of relevant attributes, inability to evaluate at a network level, and reliance on foot-based audits (completed virtually where possible). A GIS-based analysis approach was piloted by identifying attributes from an audit tool most likely to be available from city open data sources and using this to propose an approach for city-wide age-friendly community evaluation.
Defining a typology of urban bus routes is critical for understanding how different types of services and route characteristics influence travel demand patterns. This study aims to establish a comprehensive typology of bus routes in Montreal by taking into account both land use data - which helps to identify the types of areas served by the routes (e.g., residential, industrial, educational, or central business districts, etc.,)- and route features. The latter include operational and accessibility-related indicators, such as average inter-stop distance, total number of stops, speed, and connectivity with other transportation services (e.g., number of intersecting subway stations, and bus lines etc.,).
Once the bus route typology is created, the clusters are merged with the daily transactional validation data to analyze the variability of demand during the different phases covering the COVID period (spanning from 2019 to 2024), using variability measures. This analysis sheds light on how different route types responded to pandemic-related and shifts in travel behaviors. Finally, this research highlights the features that play a key role in shaping demand patterns, whether related to land use, network accessibility, or other route characteristic features, which will be valuable for future transportation planning and policy development.
Bita Farokhian is currently a Ph.D. candidate in Civil Engineering with a specialization in transportation engineering at Polytechnique Montreal under the supervision of Prof. Catherine Morency. She received her M.Sc. and B.Sc in Industrial Engineering and has a background in the... Read More →
In travel behavior research, joint modeling of multiple interdependent decisions has primarily relied on theory-based econometric models, with limited exploration of data-driven multi-task learning (MTL) methods. Existing MTL studies have mostly focused on discrete-discrete outputs, overlooking mixed-type decisions such as travel mode (discrete) and departure time (continuous"”though some studies have treated it as discrete). This study develops a joint artificial neural network (ANN) to simultaneously model travel mode and trip departure time. We evaluate two MLT-ANN architectures: hard-parameter sharing MTL (HP-MTL) and cross-stitch MTL (CS-MTL). Additionally, we compare them against single-output neural networks (SO-NNx) and econometric models. The results indicate that the more complex CS-MTL performed similarly to SO-NNx in most measures but was outperformed by HP-MTL, likely due to negative learning from increased complexity given task interdependencies. In contrast, HP-MTL showed significant improvements: for trip departure time prediction, it enhanced R² and mean squared error (MSE) by 21.4% and 8.3% over SO-NNx, and by 4.7 times and 27% over the hazard model. For travel mode choice, HP-MTL achieved slight accuracy gains, notably improving transit mode predictions by ~10%. This research contributes to transportation modeling literature by demonstrating the effectiveness of ML, particularly HP-MTL, in modeling joint discrete-continuous decisions.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Despite the growing focus on accessibility - the ease of reaching destinations - in transport planning, much research has centered on urban contexts. However, Canada's diverse landscapes, including rural, remote, northern, and isolated communities, present unique challenges (e.g., seasonal variability) that are unaddressed by urban accessibility literature.
In this context, we examine the spatial accessibility of Yellowknife, a northern Canadian community (population of ~20,000) and the capital city of the Northwest Territories. Yellowknife is currently undergoing the creation of their first comprehensive transportation master plan. We explore how the newly calculated Spatial Access Measure (SAM) provided by Statistics Canada may compliment this initiative.
We first review how SAM may relate to more commonly used "remoteness indices' relevant to Northern community planning. Then, we evaluate how dissemination areas rank in terms of their SAM to important care destinations such as grocery stores and healthcare, recreational, and education facilities by active transportation modes. We discuss the suitability of this measure in potentially reflecting lived experiences from different dimensions, like youth's access to school. Overall, our study seeks to critically evaluate the applicability of the newly calculated SAM in the Northern context and outline future research needs.
The rate of disability in New Brunswick is currently higher than the national average, however, the impact of having a mobility disability on someone's ability to independently meet their transportation needs is not well understood. This research aimed to address this knowledge gap by piloting a 5-day travel diary survey using GPS devices and prompted recall interviews for persons with a mobility disability (n = 13) solicited from a larger mail-out survey (678 distributed, 99 Returned). After travelling with the GPS, they participated in a prompted recall interview where they identified their trip purposes, modes of transportation, and any accessibility barriers they may have encountered. Participants also completed a stated adaptation survey and a feedback survey about the travel diary techniques.
On average, participants travelled on 3.2 of their 5 travel days. Life maintenance trips were the most reported trip type, followed by return home trips. Most trips were made using a private vehicle, with an almost equal split between being a driver and being a passenger. Accessibility barriers were not frequently reported. 77% of participants reported that the methodology was effective and 92.3% supported using interviews for the prompted recall. This suggests these methods could be applied again.
Cities are increasingly prioritizing active and sustainable forms of mobility, with enhanced territorial connectivity emerging as a central objective. In this context, understanding the impacts of substantial public transit service changes ”beyond incremental adjustments" on travel behaviors is crucial for effective urban planning.
This research examines the effects of significant improvements in transit travel times on various travel behavior indicators. Using data from the Montreal metropolitan area, the study identifies areas where transit travel times have markedly improved over a five-year period and evaluates corresponding changes in behaviors such as mode choice, transit trip rates, and the spatial distribution of transit trips.
To achieve this, GTFS data are employed to estimate transit travel time matrices, while origin-destination travel survey data provide insights into observed behavioral patterns. Transit travel time matrices are compared to detect origin-destination pairs with notable changes, using filters based on spatial and temporal parameters. Furthermore, distribution models are calibrated to analyze how changes in travel times influence the spatial structure of trips and overall transit demand.
This analysis offers valuable insights into the relationship between transit supply improvements and travel behaviors, informing strategies to promote sustainable and efficient urban mobility.
The development of high-rise condominiums in response to population growth in large cities has noticeably contributed to traffic congestion, parking shortages, and, indirectly, greenhouse gas emissions. Among proposed solutions to tackle car dependency in today's societies, high-rise condominiums, and apartment buildings hold the latent potential to shape the behavior of residents toward using active modes or public transportation. This paper aims to understand the effect of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) policies implemented in high-rise condominiums in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area on residents' mode choice and mobility patterns. A web-based stated adaptation survey was designed and conducted in the study area, and the collected data were used to estimate a series of multinomial logit models, highlighting effective policies and factors influencing condo residents' modal shifts. The model results suggested that an innovative condo-specific parking policy, along with transit fare incentives, and the provision of e-bike share stations, and e-bike share membership discounts, could encourage residents to adopt sustainable modes and reduce private car use. The model findings were further utilized to develop an Excel-based forecasting tool that could support land developers in predicting the effectiveness of TDM policies in residential developments prior to their implementation.
With a high-speed rail project in the corridor between Québec and Toronto officially announced, Canada might finally proceed to the modernization of its rail infrastructure and bring it up to par regarding long distance public transportation; however, question marks arise regarding the proposed route layout and the cities served. This conference will explore the methodological approaches and challenges encountered while codifying long distance rail and bus public transit in Québec in the GTFS format in order to diagnose the quality of current interregional transit in Québec and its accessibility to the population. With a province-wide representation of transit networks, it is now possible to compare total travel time by transit and by car, thus determining what proportion of the population has a viable alternative to their private vehicles when traveling across the province. With both supply and demand in transport observed through the first long distance OD survey available, methods used to design a long-distance transit network will be reviewed. As such, this research will provide a methodological pathway to build the public transport infrastructure needed to decrease the use of private vehicles in interregional trips to meet the sustainable transportation goals set by the provincial government in its policies.
Canada's aging population and increasing disability rates pose a question for transportation: with over one-third of New Brunswick's population living with a disability, how can transportation meet the demand for those that require accessible transportation? Accessible Demand-Response Transit (DRT) services are crucial for those who cannot use private vehicles or public transportation. There is a need for data on the operation and travel patterns associated with DRT services in New Brunswick because new regional agencies are assuming transportation planning responsibilities and looking to expand services. This research used geographically aggregated passenger data from 6 months of trip-making by a DRT provider to estimate per capita trip rates, identify origin/destination pairs, and to pilot an exact solution method of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (Christie Method) for vehicle deployment. The Christie Method was able to reasonably replicate the conditions of the existing service provider subject to their level of service requirements and was then applied to a community use-case based on extrapolated trip rates. While effective, the exact solution approach increases processing time exponentially for any additional constraints, therefore other heuristic approaches may warrant future considerations.
There is a notable connection between Canadian census metropolitan area (CMA) population and public transit ridership, as a percent of the commuting population. Smaller CMAs have lower ridership rates. Certain characteristics of smaller CMAs make commuting by car more attractive. Smaller CMAs tend to have lower downtown parking rates. They also enjoy less traffic congestion compared to larger CMAs. On the other hand, larger CMAs, such as Toronto and Winnipeg, have been burdened with serious issues of safety in public transit stations and vehicles. Combining secondary data with a selection of small CMA cases, this paper explores determinants of transit ridership, leading to public policy recommendations for increasing transit ridership. The determinants of transit use can be classified into controllable and uncontrollable factors. While weather patterns and population growth are relatively uncontrollable, transit authorities can control a variety of service features, such as number of routes, number of stops and frequency of service. Drawing on archival data and interviews with CMA transit authorities, cases will contrast several small CMAs across Canada, in an attempt to better understand various drivers of ridership performance, ranging (in 2021) from 1.2 percent in Drummondville, Quebec to 4.9 percent in Kingston, Ontario.
Car ownership remains a key determinant of mode choice, shaping daily mobility patterns. In response, many cities are investing substantial resources in sustainable transport systems to reduce dependence on private cars. But do these improvements in mobility services and infrastructure actually lead to lower car ownership, or at least slow its growth?
This research investigates the evolution of key indicators related to private car access, such as driving license ownership, household car ownership, and access-to-car ratios (the ratio of driving licenses to cars). A range of methodologies is employed to analyze trends, with a particular focus on aggregate trend analysis and the estimation of a difference-in-differences model. This model is applied to zones where significant enhancements to sustainable transportation systems have been implemented.
The findings provide insights into whether such changes have measurable impacts on car dependency. By addressing this critical question, the study contributes to understanding how sustainable mobility strategies influence broader transportation behaviors and supports decision-makers in designing effective policies to promote sustainable urban mobility.
Efficient airport transit access is crucial for mitigating traffic congestion and addressing parking limitations around airports with growing demand for air travel. In medium-sized cities like Kelowna, BC, absence of direct and exclusive airport transit options exacerbates these challenges. Futuristic transportation modes are potential solutions for these challenges, particularly when leveraging existing infrastructure like Okanagan Rail Trail (ORT). ORT, a limited-access, multi-use corridor connecting regions' major hubs, presents a unique opportunity to explore efficient futuristic modes like Autonomous Transit (ATS) to improve airport accessibility. This study investigates factors influencing individuals' perceptions of using ATS for exclusive airport access along ORT. Approximately 1,500 responses were collected from a 2024 survey of Kelowna and Lake Country residents using random sampling. Respondents were presented with scenarios emphasizing trust, safety, and convenience in adopting ATS for airport access to indicate their preferences. The survey also collected their socio-demographic, travel behaviour, and vehicle ownership information. Structural Equation Modeling was used to identify and evaluate relationships among factors influencing ATS perceptions since it simultaneously evaluates direct and indirect relationships and the effects of control variables. Results offer guidance to policymakers and transit planners in designing innovative, user-centric solutions for efficient airport access in cities like Kelowna
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Monday May 26, 2025 12:10pm - 12:30pm EDT Desmarais 116055 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5
Accessible bus stops and shelters are crucial for bus users with mobility-related disabilities. The scarcity of such stops, especially in extreme weather conditions, is one of the transportation barriers experienced by several groups, including persons with disabilities and seniors. While many cities focus on ensuring their transit vehicles are accessible, much less attention is paid to ensuring bus stops are accessible. This paper proposes a location optimization-based solution that aims to equitably distribute the location of accessible bus shelters. The modelling method provides location optimization capability by means of integrating Geographic Information System (GIS)-based network analysis, linear/nonlinear programming and observed ridership data. The case study consists of problem definition, methodological details, data sources, optimization scenarios which will include alternative distributions of accessible bus shelters across the transit network, followed by conclusions, and recommendations. The findings and recommendations will offer a pragmatic analysis of the tradeoffs between different optimization strategies for enhancing transit inclusivity.
Transfer speed and reliability are key factors influencing public transportation use. Fixed schedules often fail under unpredictable traffic, causing missed transfers. To address this challenge, we propose an online stochastic optimization (OSO) framework for the real-time transfer synchronization problem using three control tactics: hold, skip-stop, and speedup. Our approach is based on an offline model that minimizes total passenger travel time by solving time-expanded graphs incorporating all possible control tactics. Building on this model, we develop two OSO algorithms integrating historical and real-time data to generate scenarios on future bus network conditions and make dynamic decisions. These algorithms were implemented in a network-scale simulator of the public transit system of Laval, Canada. The results demonstrate improvements in mean transfer time and in passenger travel times, showcasing the practical potential of using online stochastic optimization for transfer synchronization in multi-line public transit networks.
Full Professor, Polytechnique Montréal and CIRRELT
Martin Trépanier is a civil engineer and professor at the department of mathematics and industrial engineering of École Polytechnique de Montréal, an engineering school affiliated to the Université de Montréal. He is the titular of the Chair in the transformation of transportation... Read More →
Traditional travel surveys, typically capture activity patterns for a single weekday, operate on the assumption that daily travel behaviors remain consistent throughout the week. However, recent shifts, such as hybrid work arrangements, challenge this assumption by introducing significant variations in daily travel patterns across the week. To address this limitation, the British Columbia Activity Time Use Survey (BC ATUS) collected one-day web-based activity data and seven-day smartphone app-based GPS data in the Greater Vancouver and Greater Kelowna regions. The passive nature of the seven-day data collection captured a higher number of trips compared to the one-day survey, highlighting the limitations of single-day surveys in representing comprehensive travel behavior. Analysis reveals that hybrid workers, who exhibit greater scheduling flexibility during the weekdays, display distinct travel patterns compared to traditional commuters. Hybrid workers' midweek travel peaks near home are more pronounced, and they engage in recreational, shopping, and personal business activities later in the day. Conversely, traditional commuters exhibit clearer morning and afternoon work-related peaks alongside evening dining and shopping trips. These findings emphasize the necessity of seven-day data in capturing nuanced travel behaviors, providing critical insights for equitable and effective post-pandemic urban planning.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
The term "barrier to entry' was popularized in the economic jargon after Joe Bain's treatise on the subject though it was used as a strategy to deter competition as long as one can remember. The concern about barriers to entry has been a major concern with politicians and antirust policy makers who are concerned about the state of competition in the economy. Recently, the Competition Bureau in Canada launched an inquiry into competition into the domestic air passenger service followed by the US Department of Justice and Department of Transport. The Bureau plans to examine barriers to entry and expansion as part of the scope of its study. While this initiative provides some motive in part for this paper, it goes beyond this to all transportation networks. This paper begins by briefly examining the definition and treatment of barriers to entry in Canada, it then examines a few studies on the subject followed with our opinion on these barriers in Canada and concludes with policy implications.
Executive Director, Research & Innovation, WSP Canada
Passionate about designing a built environment that creates wealth and improves quality of life for all.Civil Engineer and Economist with a Asset Management backgroundMentor in the IBET program (Indigenous Black Engineering Technology)Adjunct Professor at UNB
Activity-Based Models (ABMs) have traditionally been the domain of mega regions because they are resource-intensive to develop, require significant investments in data collection, software development, and operational costs. The challenge lies particularly in obtaining statistically robust household travel surveys, which must capture diverse behaviors, preferences, and communication arrangements across populations. Efforts to enhance the transferability of ABMs between regions have proven instrumental in addressing these challenges. By adapting foundational behavioral parameters from existing models, ABMs can be efficiently transferred, calibrated, and fine-tuned to reflect local conditions, significantly reducing development costs. This approach not only democratizes access to advanced travel forecasting tools but also provides critical insights into demographic behaviors and preferences, furthering the understanding and assessment of equitable planning.
The Joint REgional TranSportation Simulator (JESS) ABM, developed for the Joint Regional Transportation Agency and the City of Halifax was built on the above principles of transferability and adaptability. In doing so, it has proven that a new age in transportation analytics and data-driven decision-making in planning has arrived, regardless of the size of the urban area.
In a context where managing multiple spatial datasets in transportation is increasingly complex, the analysis of such data faces significant challenges. The redundancy of repetitive tasks and time-consuming manipulations make analysis processes lengthy and costly, impeding the efficiency of mobility and transportation studies.
My research aims to address these issues by developing an innovative tool capable of facilitating the fusion and integration of various geospatial datasets in transportation. This tool will enable the efficient handling of multi-source and multi-scale data, including points (households), lines (transport networks), and polygons (land evaluation zones), while automating repetitive and time-intensive tasks.
The proposed approach also allows for the calculation and visualization of buffers at different scales, the extraction of relevant metrics such as density, averages, or standard deviations, and the intuitive presentation of results. This automation aims to optimize analysis processes, reduce delays, and enhance the accuracy of results.
By simplifying these complex manipulations, this research will contribute to a better understanding of spatial dynamics while providing a powerful tool for researchers and decision-makers in transportation.
The notion of "residential footprint" consists in aggregating the environmental impacts of the dwelling and the environmental impacts of the mobility induced by the home location, over their entire life cycle. This presentation proposes a review of 61 scientific literature documents which aims to present the state-of-the-art in assessing the residential footprint, in a perspective of evaluating the sustainability of residences in the Montreal and Quebec City metropolitan areas. First, the methods to conduct an assessment of the environmental sustainability of residences, as well as data requirements, are outlined. Second, the results of the studies are analyzed and compared. The studies highlight the importance of simultaneously considering housing and daily mobility, both of which account for a significant share of the residential footprint, but also of assessing and differentiating between direct and indirect impacts. They also make it possible to identify the explanatory factors for the different levels of impact, which is essential for implementing equitable measures to reduce households' environmental footprint. Finally, the current gaps in the literature, such as data limitation, incomplete assessment of daily mobility and lack of simultaneous consideration of environmental and monetary impacts, are discussed to guide future work on households' residential footprint.
Networks have always been important in transportation. They have become ubiquitous today in all other sectors of the economy, including banking, pipelines, and grocery shopping. Their importance has further increased with the advent of the Internet-a "network of networks". In Canada the Competition Bureau launched a market study of competition in passenger air travel service and joined a joint new working group in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the US to identify and prevent potentially anticompetitive conduct in the global supply and distribution of goods. And in the US, the Justice Department's Antitrust Division and the Department of Transportation jointly announced a broad public inquiry into the state of competition in air travel. This provides the motivation for this paper - networks in transportation.Part I reviews the definition of networks and whether these networks are widespread in Canadian Transportation and its importance. Part II reviews the use of mathematics in networks and the economic theory of networks in transportation. In Part III, whether networks in transportation create economies is briefly examined and their treatment under the competition law. Part V provides a few concluding remarks.
Executive Director, Research & Innovation, WSP Canada
Passionate about designing a built environment that creates wealth and improves quality of life for all.Civil Engineer and Economist with a Asset Management backgroundMentor in the IBET program (Indigenous Black Engineering Technology)Adjunct Professor at UNB
Activity-based travel demand models (ABM) often use econometric models or heuristic rules to study activity participation and duration, focusing on independent variable effects. However, joint effects and the influence of emerging trends like telecommuting and online activities remain underexplored. This study investigates how individual attributes influence activity participation and duration, relationships between activity engagement and duration, and interdependencies among activities. Using data from Metro Vancouver, the study examines these dynamics across four groups: commuters, telecommuters, non-workers, and hybrid workers, based on 24-hour activity logs from the British Columbia Activity Time Use Survey. Findings from the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) revealed significant direct and causal relationships between in-home and out-of-home activity participation and their durations. Furthermore, in-home activities influence each other, as do out-of-home activities. For example, out-of-home recreational activities and in-home recreational durations directly influence in-home social activity participation, while in-home personal business durations have an indirect effect for commuters. The number of children in a household directly influences participation in pick-up/drop-off activities. Similar activity relationships are observed among telecommuters, non-workers, and hybrid workers. The developed model will be implemented within a 24-hour ABM framework, currently under development at UBC Okanagan.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Several studies have explored transportation mode imputation using GPS data, employing different algorithms. There also exist review papers evaluating the accuracy based on dataset, feature selection, and algorithm type. However, comprehensive comparisons of various categories of algorithms applied to a single dataset -while controlling for dataset differences- are rare. Another critical issue in mode imputation research is the limited evaluation of generalizability and transferability. Common practices, such as splitting data into training and testing sets, often fail to address these aspects effectively due to overlap in trips from the same individuals or geographical regions, undermining claims of generalizability. This study addresses these gaps using a large-scale GPS trip dataset with mode labels, obtained via a smartphone application. The study evaluates accuracy and generalizability of rule-based, statistical, and machine learning methods while accounting for data intensiveness, computational complexity, and implementation feasibility as factors of efficiency. Also, trips are categorized by regions to analyze the performance of models trained in one region and tested in another, offering novel insights into the robustness and transferability of these methods. This comprehensive analysis identifies the trade-offs needed to achieve accurate and efficient mode imputation, enhancing the practical applicability of these techniques in real-time mode detection.
This study assesses transportation-related emissions across Edmonton's land use zones using a bottom-up urban vehicular emission inventory, with the goal of exploring potential Low Emission Zones (LEZs). LEZs have been successfully implemented in cities worldwide, including London, Santa Monica, and Beijing, and are also in place in Toronto's North York area through restricted road actions. Given Edmonton's Climate Resilience Planning and Development Action Plan on low carbon transportation, LEZs represent a viable pathway for further exploration.
Edmonton's Zoning Bylaw Geographical Data includes heavy and medium-sized industrial areas adjacent to residential neighborhoods, which contributes to the formation of emission hotspots. Beside establishing the zone-based mobile source emissions, the study will evaluate impact of LEZ common policies, for both groups of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and light-duty vehicles (LDVs), by calculating the spatial and temporal distributions of GHG and (Criteria Air Contaminants) CACs emissions which can help identifying the action zones. This model is coupled with a spatial visualization tool, to support understanding the impact of traffic restrictions on neighborhoods.
Transportation and warehousing industries were among the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. As businesses reopened and travel restrictions eased in 2021, supply chains were beset by a series of challenges, including a shortage of inputs from shuttered production and dwindling inventories as well as labour shortages and port congestion. Moreover, severe weather and geopolitical events served to intensify such challenges. Although initial impacts have subsided, other issues - productivity, labour disruptions and trade realignments - have emerged. The national Supply Chain Office (SCO) was established in 2023 to help stakeholders better respond to such disruptions.
Statistics Canada is collaborating with Transport Canada to develop supply chain data and metrics to support the SCO. This paper begins by reviewing post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and their economic manifestations. It then provides a recap of the work to date, and outlines planned data development. Next, it features two of the data products under development. The first is a composite Supply Chain Services Price Index to measure the distribution and delivery costs across the entire transportation and warehousing sector. The second is a pilot Survey of Marine Vessel Operators to gather critical financial and operational statistics on Canada's commercial marine industry.
Passenger demand models are used to understand the movement of people across the multimodal transportation systems, which usually includes a combination of the modes ranging between car, bus, train, ferry, etc., and often include other access modes such as walking, taxis, etc. Traditional models are often complex and require substantial amount of data for their development, validation, and calibration. Consequently, this complexity contributes to increased project costs and extended timelines.
This study presents a simplified approach towards modeling passenger flows across a regional transportation network, focused on ferry transport. The model considers travel times, intermodal transfer times, boarding and alighting times, and the corresponding fares associated with the movement of passengers. These costs and times are categorized by passenger type and are represented as a link- or node-based generalized cost. The generalized cost function build-up also accounts for bottlenecks, inefficiencies, congestion, boarding issues, and delays, etc.
The model has been developed in collaboration with BC Ferries to understand demand on the ferry network and to test shifts in demand with potential new ferry routes. Future applications include analyzing demographic shifts, modeling future capacity needs, and assessing the impact of mode shift policies, providing a robust framework for strategic transportation planning.
Smart card data in public transportation provides valuable information on passenger movements. While typically limited to entry transactions, it can be enhanced by algorithms to estimate alighting points and reconstruct origin-destination routes. This allows to calculate key performance indicators such as passenger-kilometers, occupancy rates and schedule adherence, which are essential for daily management and strategic planning of transport networks. In this context, destination estimation plays a critical role in obtaining a comprehensive view of passenger journeys. Over time, significant improvements have been made to destination estimation tools, particularly by incorporating criteria that use historical passenger transaction data, along with those based on stop sequences. These advancements have increased the number of destinations estimated. However, the probabilistic nature of some criteria, due to missing information for certain trips, can introduce biases into the results. To overcome these limitations, an enhanced destination estimation model is proposed. It combines traditional criteria with an optimized version of the "weighted random sampling" (WRS) criterion, leveraging both the transaction historical data and some external counting data. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of estimations, especially for complex trips. A detailed description of the WRS method will be presented in the submitted short paper.
Full Professor, Polytechnique Montréal and CIRRELT
Martin Trépanier is a civil engineer and professor at the department of mathematics and industrial engineering of École Polytechnique de Montréal, an engineering school affiliated to the Université de Montréal. He is the titular of the Chair in the transformation of transportation... Read More →
IUMs are large-scale models that simulate interactions between transportation, land use, and demographic systems. For example, the Simulator for Transportation, Energy, and Land Use for Regional Systems (STELARS) models demographic, vehicle ownership, and transportation dynamics. Making IUMs transferable across regions enhances computational efficiency and reduces recalibration costs. While transferability tests for individual components exist, full IUMs remain largely untested, emphasizing the need for comprehensive evaluation. Testing spatial transferability evaluates whether models developed for one region can predict outcomes in another, particularly in the presence of behavioral differences. For instance, data from the BC Activity Time Use Survey (BC ATUS) 2023 shows SUVs account for 37.22% of vehicle preferences in Vancouver compared to 24.22% in the Okanagan. This study evaluates the transferability of STELARS, developed for the Okanagan, to Vancouver by synthesizing Vancouver's population and generating components using BC Assessment dataset. Assuming similar behavior, initial transferability is assessed with metrics like Root Mean Square Error by comparing simulation results with Census and vehicle population from the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Ultimately, this study intends to determine whether large-scale integrated urban models are transferable across regions.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
In Canada, road freight transportation contributes 84% of GHG emissions within the freight transportation sector (De Bruycker, 2023). In cities, freight transport is also a significant source of noise emissions and road accidents. Cargo bikes have emerged as a promising alternative for urban deliveries, offering environmental benefits and cost-effective deliveries. Studies have shown that cargo bikes outperform vans in dense urban areas, excelling in delivery speed and reducing operational expenses (Nocerino et al., 2016; Conway et al., 2017; Sheth et al., 2019). However, research has predominantly focused on large cities, despite medium-sized cities exhibiting characteristics favorable to cargo bike use.
This study proposes a novel method to evaluate the feasibility of cargo bikes for freight deliveries in medium-sized cities. The approach leverages open data to analyze key factors such as land use, elevation, weather conditions, population density, and bike lane networks. To address diverse urban contexts, the analysis incorporates scenario-based modeling using dominant land-use patterns and land-use entropy. The findings support the strategic adoption of cargo bikes as realistic and efficient strategy for sustainable urban freight solutions in medium-sized cities.
Full Professor, Polytechnique Montréal and CIRRELT
Martin Trépanier is a civil engineer and professor at the department of mathematics and industrial engineering of École Polytechnique de Montréal, an engineering school affiliated to the Université de Montréal. He is the titular of the Chair in the transformation of transportation... Read More →
Through the process of privatization and commercialization, several entities were created in Canadian air transport which imposed user charges on air travel. COVID-19 highlighted a major flaw with this system: the difficulty of cost recovery with limited users. Subsequently, post-pandemic charges on air travel in Canada have increased upwards of thirty percent. With risks of future demand shocks, along with incentives to make more sustainable travel decisions the user-pay system risks reducing the contribution of air transport to Canada's socio-economic development and burdening air travellers through fewer travel options and higher prices. There have been several calls for reform to the Canadian air transport industry but with many entities in the aviation ecosystem, preferences and priorities for policy objectives differ greatly. To determine various stakeholder objectives of managing an air transportation ecosystem, a Value-Focused Thinking approach is used by interviewing experts and analyzing policy documents through a thematic and text-analysis. Though stakeholder preferences vary, findings suggest overarching objectives (ie. competition, viability and governance) overlap significantly. The elicitation of objectives through a robust research process provides a comprehensive framework that can assist air transport policy decision making, by working backwards from shared objectives that can yield agreed upon alternatives.
Job mobility is a critical factor in understanding long-term employment transitions and their interplay with transportation systems, residential choices, and urban planning. This study examines job mobility using data from the British Columbia Time Use Survey (BC ATUS), focusing on survey design, data accuracy, and the reliability of self-reported employment histories. The study evaluates the structure of job mobility-related survey questions and the challenges associated with recall bias and data consistency in longitudinal data collection. To analyze job mobility dynamics, this study employs a continuous hazard-based duration model, which explicitly accounts for individual and household life-cycle stages, including residential relocation, partner relocation, and retirement decisions. The model integrates socioeconomic and demographic attributes, such as age, marital status, education level, and homeownership, to examine their influence on job duration and transition likelihoods. The results indicate that job relocation is most frequent in the early years of employment and is significantly influenced by individual and household factors, particularly residential/partner relocation and retirement decisions.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
Comprehensive 7-day data is crucial for capturing full spectrum of weekly and weekend travel behaviors which is often overlooked in single-day surveys. Direct methods like web-based surveys face challenges such as survey fatigue, biased responses, and data quality issues while collecting 7-day data. Passive data collection methods such as smartphone apps with GPS tracking offer an alternative, reducing respondent burden while providing detailed spatiotemporal data. However, GPS-based methods are not without limitations, including inaccuracies, app closures due to battery optimization, and missing data caused by user behavior or permission restrictions. The study uses a dataset from the British Columbia Activity Time-Use Survey (BC ATUS) which combines a 1-day web-based activity diary with a subset of 7-day smartphone app trip diary data. While the app data provides valuable insights, it is often incomplete, with missing trips and activity durations. To address this problem, this study employs a sequence of econometric and machine learning models to impute missing values by incorporating socio-demographic attributes, temporal patterns, and activity characteristics. This approach improves data completeness while addressing cost and quality concerns in 7-day smartphone data collection. By overcoming these challenges, our method supports more accurate travel behavior modeling and informed transportation policy decisions.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
As urban areas strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, bike-sharing systems emerge as a promising solution to decrease private vehicle reliance. This study presents a robust methodology to quantify the emission reduction potential of bike-sharing systems in Vancouver, focusing on three core steps: trip purpose classification, mode substitution simulation, and emission factor estimation. Trip purposes were classified using k-means clustering, distinguishing between commuting and leisure trips. Mode substitution was then simulated using a graph neural network trained on trip diary data, allowing for accurate predictions of traditional modes replaced by bike-sharing, such as cars, transit, and walking. Finally, emission reductions were quantified using MOVES, a comprehensive emission inventory model, accounting for road types, fleet composition, and temporal variations.
The mode substitution analysis revealed that bike-sharing systems predominantly replace car trips, with 54% of trips previously made by car, while 14% were from transit and 32% were walking trips. The results indicate significant environmental benefits, with each bike saving approximately 119 kg of CO2, 1.26 kg of CO, 0.08 kg of NOx, and 1.24 g of PM2.5 annually. These findings highlight the effectiveness of bike-sharing systems in reducing urban transportation emissions and emphasize their role as a cost-effective decarbonization strategy.
This study surveyed the port infrastructure needs of the 17 Canada Port Authorities (CPAs) over the next 15 years (until 2040). CPCS collected data and engaged with CPAs to assess their most pressing infrastructure needs, and the key themes which are likely to drive infrastructure investment over the long-term. Our analysis quantifies the magnitude of investment needed for capital projects, highlights funding gaps, and identifies the key challenges faced in regard to funding port infrastructure in Canada. Furthermore, we have reviewed how port infrastructure investment is approached in other jurisdictions (the United States, Australia and the Netherlands)._x000D_ Overall, our study expresses a clear need for port infrastructure investment and addressing the challenges faced by CPAs to ensure Canada improves its supply chain competitiveness. Canadian ports face strong competition and risk losing trade to US ports which also serve major trade gateways to the North American market. Canada also competes for investment capital globally and must demonstrate an appealing business case for attracting capital.
Effective pedestrian facilities are essential for promoting walking and supporting urban mobility objectives for municipalities. Conventional pedestrian level-of-service (PLOS) assessments rely on density as an indicator but fail to account for movement restriction, such as “shoulder brushing” or “bumping others.” This study introduces an innovative approach to real-time PLOS estimation that captures density and accounts for restricted movement. The system development consists of three phases: Detection, PLOS Modeling, and Application. Initially, a virtual camera within a game engine (Unity) replicates a real-world detection system to capture the trajectory of pedestrians on a second-by-second basis. Next, a traffic micro-simulation (Vissim) models pedestrian movement, deriving mathematical indicators to quantify density and restricted movement. These indicators are computed in real-time, offering enhanced PLOS measurement. Finally, the model is tested through a case study with countermeasures proposed to improve PLOS. The pilot study conducted on York Lane at York University, Toronto, Ontario, evaluates one base scenario and five alternatives. Under similar conditions, removing static obstacles improved restricted movement by 10%, while eliminating dynamic obstacles yielded a 15% improvement in comparison to the base scenario. The real-time virtual PLOS estimation system offers urban planners an effective tool to minimize restricted movement and enhance pedestrian infrastructure.
Accurate traffic data imputation is essential for transportation systems, particularly during social events that disrupt traffic patterns. This study introduces the Event-Aware Missing Data Imputation Network (EMDIN), a novel model designed to predict the impact of different types and sizes of social events by leveraging event-specific features, such as type, location, attendance, timings, and parking availability. EMDIN integrates advanced spatiotemporal learning techniques, including graph convolutional networks and long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, enhanced by a two-stage imputation decoder. The model features a dynamic forgetting mechanism in the LSTM layers that prioritizes recent traffic patterns as events approach, while the two-stage decoder further refines missing value predictions using attention-weighted spatiotemporal features. Applied to a one-year probe vehicle and social event dataset from Hamilton, ON, Canada, EMDIN achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.5-7.5% and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 6.0-6.5 km/h during events, significantly outperforming benchmark methods. This study underscores the importance of incorporating social event features to improve imputation accuracy and provides a robust framework for addressing dynamic urban traffic challenges caused by events.
Ali Ardestani is a doctoral candidate in the Civil Engineering department at McMaster University, specializing in Transportation Engineering. He obtained his master’s degree in civil engineering from TMU, Iran with a focus on artificial intelligence application in transportation... Read More →
This study aims to map on-road transportation emissions in various communities within the City of Surrey, British Columbia, using GIS and geospatial analysis techniques. Transportation is a significant contributor to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, making it crucial to analyze its spatial distribution to inform sustainable urban planning. The methodology employs methods to process and visualize emission data from multiple sources, including vehicle types, fuel usage, and road network characteristics. By integrating geospatial datasets, we associate transportation emissions with specific community boundaries, providing a detailed spatial representation of pollutant emissions and identify emission hotspots. Results highlight spatial disparities in emissions, with high-density traffic areas showing elevated levels of pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). These findings offer insights into community exposure to transportation-related air pollution, which is crucial for targeted mitigation strategies and mobilizing equity.
After presenting the significance of GHG emissions from locomotives as a proportion of total railway emissions, the paper will survey current developments by the North American railways to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions from their freight locomotives. This involves three broad strategies - further fuel efficiency, the use of bio fuels and advanced technology for new locomotives - and how they might be adopted in light-duty, medium-duty and heavy-duty rail service.
sole proprietor, Malcom Cairns Research and Consulting
Educated in England and Canada, Malcolm earned a PhD at the University of Toronto in mathematical statistics in 1975. He worked for nearly twenty years with the federal government in a variety of positions and departments, including Statistics Canada, the Canadian Transport Commission... Read More →
This study examines the factors influencing work duration, shopping, and recreation time, along with their variability, with a particular focus on demographic characteristics, employment status, household composition, and the built environment. The study utilizes data from the 2022 Halifax Travel Activity Survey, which collected detailed 24-hour activity logs from the respondents. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models were developed using the survey data to analyze the relationships between various independent variables and activity durations. The results reveal that individuals aged 25-65 generally work longer hours, while part-time workers and students report significantly fewer hours. Retired individuals exhibit greater variability in work duration, suggesting more flexible schedules, while students and part-time workers show less variability due to fixed routines. In terms of shopping and recreation, retirees and the unemployed spend more time on leisure activities, while students and households with children spend less time. License ownership and proximity to mixed land-use areas are significant factors influencing the duration and variability of activities. The findings underscore the importance of considering both intrapersonal and interpersonal variability when modeling travel behavior and emphasize the need for models that account for increased flexibility in work and leisure activities post-COVID.
Evidence exists that, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, travel behaviour was relatively stable, once one accounts for "conditioning factors" such as urban growth, labour force changes, etc. Expectations are that the pandemic disrupted this stable behaviour, creating a "new normal" going forward. This paper presents an investigation of this hypothesis by comparing travel behaviour as captured in two large-sample household travel surveys conducted in the GGH: the 2016 and 2022/23 Transportation Tomorrow Surveys (TTS). 2016 was the last pre-pandemic TTS. Approximately 70% of the post-pandemic survey was gathered in fall, 2022, while 30% was gathered in spring, 2023. While travel behaviour may not have fully stabilized, the 2022/23 TTS should provide clear indications of the general nature of regional post-pandemic travel behaviour. The analysis compares a range of metrics: out-of-home activity generation by purpose; activity start times and durations; trip mode choices; tour characteristics. Hypotheses tested include whether changes have occurred in: work-from-home (WfH) rates, transit and active (walk/bike) mode shares, off-peak travel patterns and household distributions in the region.
Hydrogen is emerging as a vital component in the transition scenarios of many hard-to-decarbonize sectors. For the aviation industry, the success of this decarbonization pathway hinges on the development of essential supporting infrastructure and a dependable hydrogen supply. The versatility of hydrogen production may hold the key to achieving the latter. Yet the case for a diversified and strategic procurement of hydrogen at airports is often overlooked in the literature. We present a model optimizing the design and operation of a hydrogen-based microgrid at airports. This microgrid will provide energy for aircraft, ground support equipment, vehicle refueling (including hydrogen for heavy-duty vehicles and electricity for light-duty vehicles), and heating systems for airport buildings. In this paper, we apply this model to the Toronto Pearson International Airport, exploring various hydrogen supply scenarios. In doing so, we assess the impact of different policy decisions and economic factors on the system's overall cost and carbon emissions.
For nearly 15 years, the Mobility Chair at Polytechnique Montréal has been conducting a robust research and development program, supported by numerous research partners, aimed at equipping decision-making in transportation and mobility. This presentation will offer an overview of the various open tools developed (and under development) to support informed decision-making in the field._x000D_ These tools, powered by the Transition platform (www.transition.city), encapsulate years of methodological advancements and are designed to democratize access to cutting-edge methods and functionalities. By making these tools widely accessible, the Chair contributes to fostering data-driven and evidence-based decisions that address current and future challenges in transportation planning._x000D_ Key tools to be showcased include Transition, a transportation network simulation tool; Évolution, a web-based survey platform; and a decision-support platform for location choice analysis. Each tool is tailored to specific needs and audiences, providing practical solutions to complex transportation issues._x000D_ This presentation highlights the Chair's commitment to bridging the gap between research and practice, empowering policymakers, planners, and researchers with state-of-the-art resources to improve transportation systems and mobility for communities worldwide.
Full Professor, Polytechnique Montréal and CIRRELT
Martin Trépanier is a civil engineer and professor at the department of mathematics and industrial engineering of École Polytechnique de Montréal, an engineering school affiliated to the Université de Montréal. He is the titular of the Chair in the transformation of transportation... Read More →
Working from home (WFH) has significantly impacted telecommuters' activity-travel behavior and urban transportation systems, with potential to reduce traffic congestion, peak-hour pressure, and emissions. Early studies in the 1990s, when WFH began emerging as a regular work setting, identified it as a sustainable strategy to alleviate congestion and emissions. However, as WFH became more common, later research suggested its benefits might diminish due to more dispersed home locations and increased non-work travel, both enabled by telecommuting flexibility. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted WFH from a choice to an obligation, profoundly altering its impacts on activity-travel patterns. While numerous studies examined WFH during the pandemic, research on the effects of the post-pandemic hybrid work environment remains limited. This study uses a week-long activity-travel survey to explore how the hybrid work model affects trip-making behavior. Preliminary findings reveal that the post-pandemic hybrid work environment influences activity-travel patterns differently than the conventional pre-pandemic WFH. Notably, regular hybrid workers, splitting work evenly between home and office, show higher trip rates than occasional telecommuters, who primarily work from home. However, in general, higher rates of WFH throughout the week are associated with fewer trips and reduced travel distances as expected.
Aviation demand in Canada continues growing, both passengers and freight, compromising Paris Agreement commitments, as well as 2050 Net Zero targets. For illustration, combined emissions from two transport sectors, civil aviation and freight trucking, are set to surpass those from electricity grids by early 2025, with both continuing to increase. The most important option identified by the aviation industry is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Technically a virtually identical "drop-in," SAF is manufactured using renewable inputs, including, prominently, oilseeds, like Canola.
Moving forward on SAF in Canada remains tricky. SAF will certainly cost somewhat more than conventional, but air carriers are constrained by bottom lines, and cannot afford excessive costs. Oilseed-based SAF is the most technically advanced and economically viable option for them, yet international standards, unfortunately, end up deferring away from and restricting such product. Potential domestic SAF producers face financing concerns and threats from excessive U.S. subsidies. They need certainty and supports. Canada's oilseed producers are caught in the midst of trade disputes, facing severe impacts. Canada overall risks losing this new industry altogether, associated value-add and jobs. This paper explores the urgency and challenges associated with SAF, as well as potential solutions to meet key stakeholder needs.
Accessibility - the ease of reaching destinations - is a promising tool for integrated land use and transport planning. Increasingly, various accessibility indicators are proposed in research and they are also gaining traction among practitioners. Yet, their implementation in planning and decision-making remains limited. This observed gap raises two questions: (i) To what extent and how are accessibility goals addressed in land use and transport plans? and (ii) How is the integration of accessibility goals associated with a higher adoption of accessibility indicators by practitioners?
This study aims to evaluate the extent to which accessibility is integrated in land use and transport plans, with the city of Montreal as a case study. First, we examine the transport plans from the regional transport planning authority and from the main public transport agency. Next, transport and land use plans from three levels of governance (regional, municipal, and local (e.g., boroughs)) are analyzed. This approach enables a comprehensive analysis across governance levels and across sectors (e.g., land use, mobility and public transport planning).
While focused on Montreal, this study contributes to the growing body of literature on the barriers and opportunities for a greater integration of accessibility in land use and transport policies.
By 2019, car sharing had become an important element of the urban transportation mobility ecosystem that enabled households to reduce their vehicle ownership levels. Car sharing companies had been well established in major cities for years, even decades, and by the late 2010s, car sharing had expanded to the suburbs. The COVID-19 pandemic brought an abrupt end to this expansion, and car sharing companies shrunk their sphere of operations, with several going out of business completely.
This study draws on three surveys of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) carried out in 2018, 2021 and 2023, representing near peak pre-pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic conditions for car-sharing. Car-sharing fared quite differently in different parts of the region, with almost no drop in car share membership in Hamilton between 2018 and 2021, a modest decline in Toronto and a significant decrease in Peel and York. In addition to car-sharing, the surveys asked about teleworking and auto ownership, and we have estimated a joint model of car-sharing, telework and auto ownership, both a pooled model and one for each survey year, in order to tease out the different role car-sharing membership (and telework) played in reducing car ownership in each period.
Environmental protection initiatives in the air travel sector encourage passengers to consider their personal emissions footprint in selecting travel itineraries. These initiatives mainly rely on average emission factors (AEFs) whereby air passengers are anticipated to choose itineraries with lower AEFs. However, these AEFs cannot represent the marginal impact of changing demand on emissions, and thus, misinform travelers and policy makers. In order to capture this marginal impact, we estimate marginal emission factors (MEFs) on domestic U.S. routes that originate from different airports within driving distance and arrive at common final destinations. We do so by applying a Breguet Range Equation-based emissions model on publicly available air operations data for the selected routes. Compared to routes originating from large hubs, MEFs on routes originating from small and medium hubs are 63%-105% and 36%-65% higher, respectively. However, AEFs on routes starting from small and medium hubs are only 27%-50% and 18%-40% higher, respectively, compared to those starting from large hubs. These findings indicate that AEFs significantly underestimate the emissions savings of choosing itineraries that originate from large hubs over those that originate from smaller airports. Therefore, it is critical to incorporate MEFs in environmental initiatives in the air travel sector.
This study investigates factors influencing the ownership of various mobility tools, including driver licenses, motor vehicles, bicycles, scooters, shared micro-mobility (SMM) subscriptions, and transit passes. Understanding mobility tool ownership is critical for enhancing urban transportation accessibility and efficiency. A multivariate probit (MVP) model is employed to analyze socio-demographic, trip characteristics, built-environment, and attitudinal factors using data from a 2022 transportation survey in Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. The MVP model accounts for correlated error components across choice dimensions, enabling robust joint estimation. Key findings indicate that single-person households and younger generations (millennials and Gen Z) prefer bicycles and SMM services, favoring low-emission, affordable, and flexible options. Larger households and high-income individuals prioritize car ownership for convenience. Residents of attached housing rely more on transit passes, reflecting public transportation dependence. Shorter trips correlate with higher SMM subscriptions and lower car ownership, while longer trips align with increased vehicle and transit pass ownership. Built-environment factors, such as mixed land use and high bike-ability, encourage bicycle and transit use. Attitudes also matter; pro-car views increase car ownership, while sustainability-oriented attitudes promote bicycles and transit reliance. These insights inform strategies for more inclusive, efficient transportation systems.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the travel patterns within cities around the world and its long-lasting effects are still being studied. There has been research on some of COVID-19's long-term impacts on urban transportation systems, from public transportation ridership to commuting patterns, but the pandemic's long-term impact on on-street parking has not been investigated. This paper examines this through analyzing the spatial and temporal trends for parking in 938 paid on-street locations in Toronto. Two sets of parking transaction data were used for the analysis, one from May 2019 to July 2019 and another from May 2022 to June 2022. The results show that parking demand decreased by approximately 20 percent while parking duration increased by approximately 10 percent in the post-pandemic period. Furthermore, the daily patterns in parking demand and duration for weekdays and Saturdays are similar between the 2019 and 2022 scenarios. Finally, the spatial distribution of on-street parking duration within Toronto is similar between the pre- and post-pandemic scenarios. These findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has not significantly impacted on-street parking behaviour within Toronto in the long-term.
Climate change is a global challenge that will impact all aspects of society and the economy, including the transportation sector. In recent years, governments around the world have enacted legislation and regulations to address and mitigate the impacts climate change, with many more likely to do so in the coming decade. These government actions and changes in travel behaviour are expected to impact the demand for air travel in the future. This paper will examine some of the key risks and uncertainties facing aviation demand forecasting arising climate change adaptation policies, regulations, and their impacts on travel intentions and demand. The research will consider methods to incorporate climate change factors into existing forecasting techniques and highlight how climate change effects are could impact demand forecasts.
This study presents vehicle ownership (VO) simulation within the "STELARS' (Simulator for Transportation, Energy, LAnd use for Regional System) framework. VO is simulated as an event-based decision process adopting hybrid continuous-discrete time simulation techniques. In STELARS, each household agent subscribes to a list of events (e.g., child-birth) that makes them active to adjust their fleet. Being active, agents make two inter-connected decisions- vehicle transaction and type choices. In the vehicle transaction stage, for households never owning a vehicle, the first vehicle purchase timing decision is simulated. For households with vehicles, their decision to add, dispose, or replace a vehicle is simulated. In the vehicle type choice stage, agents' decision to choose vehicles by body, vintage, fuel, and technology type is simulated. Vehicle transaction is simulated as a continuous time decision using a hazard-based model. Once the timing of the transaction is determined, the vehicle type choice simulation transitions into a discrete time-step. This paper reports the micro-simulation of VO and multi-year validation for the greater Okanagan region in Canada for 2011-2021. Overall, the implementation of VOSim will assist in targeting the population groups and neighborhoods to develop equitable plans and policies to promote sustainable vehicle ownership.
PhD Candidate, University of British Columbia Okanagan
Md Shahadat Hossain is doing Ph.D. in Civil Engineering at University of British Columbia, Okanagan under the supervision of Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi. His research lies in developing statistical models to understand households’ vehicle ownership decisions and implementing those within... Read More →
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
While most studies have descriptively analyzed the effects of COVID-19 on travel behavior, a deeper behavioral analysis using econometric modeling is necessary to identify the factors influencing these changes. This research examines how perceptions of COVID-19 and health concerns shape travel behaviors and explores the attitudinal variables that explain the use of different transportation modes. Additionally, it investigates the role of these attitudinal variables as antecedents of teleworking and online shopping intentions. This study contributes to the literature in three ways. First, it develops econometric micro-behavioral models to examine anticipated post-COVID travel behaviors. Second, it identifies behavioral differences across individuals based on their characteristics. Third, it incorporates attitudinal variables related to virtual activities into the modeling framework to assess their impact on mobility behaviors. Our approach categorizes individuals based on their anticipated post-pandemic mode usage and models the determinants influencing these categories. Using data from our COVID Survey 2022, including new attitudinal variables, we employ a Hybrid Choice Model to explore travel mode preferences. By uncovering key drivers of travel behavior, this research aims to inform policymakers in creating effective long-term strategies to address evolving mobility needs in response to significant events that can fundamentally alter travel behavior trends.
This paper reports on a novel experiment to study air passenger willingness to pay for carbon offsets. In the experiment participants make an incentivized decision to purchase one of three trips involving air travel with real cash consequences, based on real flights and prices. A control group, with opt-in carbon offsets, is compared to three treatment groups: (1) mandatory carbon offsets, (2) opt-out carbon offsets and (3) opt-out carbon offsets under saliency conditions (pre-purchase information provision). The results suggest minimal competitive effects of a carbon offset while providing support for a significant default bias effect when comparing opt-in versus opt-out schemes. Information provision increases willingness to pay for offsets, but the effect is small and insignificant.
Integrated Urban Models (IUMs) are advanced simulations that encompass long-term (e.g., demographic shifts and residential patterns), medium-term (e.g., vehicle ownership trends), and short-term (e.g., travel behavior) decision-making processes within a regional population. A key challenge in developing these models is achieving computational efficiency, particularly as large regional areas. Traditional simulation using nested for-loops often struggle with scalability, and while parallel computing offers relief, it requires substantial computational resources. This paper explores "vectorization' as an alternative to iterative operations, aiming to improve efficiency through "batch processing'. We applied vectorization to the demographic dynamics (DYx) module of "STELARS', an IUM under development at The University of British Columbia. The results indicate that the vectorized computations reduced processing times by from 3 to 1,000 times, where high gains are observed in in complex models like marriage and mortality simulations. For a study area of ~200,000 individuals in 85,000 households, the vectorized DYx module completed a 10-year simulation in 90 seconds on a standard workstation, compared to 50 minutes using for-loop operation, i.e., a 33-fold improvement. This study highlights the potential of vectorization to transform IUM computational performance, particularly for large-scale simulations.
Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia - Okanagan
Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi is a transportation professor at UBCO. He has started as an assistant professor at UBCO since July 2018. Dr. Fatmi contributes by developing advanced econometric modelling methods and agent-based microsimulation modelling techniques to assist in making effective... Read More →
